The U.S. cotton industry, which began the growing season optimistically after a series of well-timed showers, is now projected to produce its second-lowest crop in a decade.
Economic pressures and challenging weather conditions, including the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene on cotton crops in southeastern states, largely have contributed to this decline.
In Texas, the nation’s top cotton-producing state, farmers are facing similar challenges as drought and rising input costs strain yields.
Combined with Congress’s ongoing failure to pass a new Farm Bill — now two years overdue — farmers face an increasingly uncertain future.
What is the U.S. cotton forecast?
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts 2024-25 U.S. cotton production at approximately 14.2 million bales, about 2.1% above the September forecast and roughly 18% more than the 2023-24 crop.
Although the harvested area is larger than last season, the national yield is lower. If this forecast holds, the 2024-25 cotton crop will be the second-smallest in a decade, with the lowest national yield in 10 years.
In the Southwest — which includes Texas and is the nation’s largest cotton-producing region — the harvested area is projected at 4.1 million acres, with an abandonment rate of 37%. The 2024-25 Southwest upland yield is expected to be significantly lower, at around 573 pounds per harvested acre, compared to the 2019-20 to 2023-24 average of 665 pounds.
Texas cotton production forecast
Data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service shows Texas farmers planted about 6.43 million acres, with an expected harvested area of nearly half that, at 3.65 million acres.
The crop condition breakdown in Texas is as follows:
- Excellent: 3%
- Good: 20%
- Fair: 32%
- Poor: 30%
- Very Poor: 15%
Texas cotton harvest over last 10 years
- 2015/16: 4.515 million acres
- 2016/17: 5.215 million acres
- 2017/18: 5.513 million acres
- 2018/19: 4.217 million acres
- 2019/20: 5.160 million acres
- 2020/21: 3.181 million acres
- 2021/22: 5.56 million acres
- 2022/23: 2.029 million acres
- 2023/24: 2.123 million acres
Source: https://www.lubbockonline.com/