Hurricane Francine was reduced to a tropical storm by the time it reached Mississippi, and its rainfall and wind were not enough to cause major damage to the state’s cotton crop despite two-thirds of it having opened beforehand.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated just under 70% of the cotton bolls around the state had opened as of Sept. 9, three days before Francine reached the state.
The timing and projected track of the storm at that time made for the possibility of stand and lint yield loss with virtually the whole crop still in the field, enduring 40- to 60-mph winds and flash flooding.
However, Francine moved quickly, with rainfall totals in much of the state on the lower side of what was anticipated.
“Damage is always variable in these cases because some isolated areas see more wind and rain and have micro considerations such as crop varieties, conditions and yields prior to the storm,” said Brian Pieralisi, Mississippi State University Extension cotton specialist, “but based on the conversations I’ve had with growers and consultants, damage from Francine was minimal.”
More rainfall followed the weekend after the initial system passed through, but little of it was heavy, and previously dry conditions allowed the fields to take on more precipitation without flooding.
“With the drought prior to the rainfall event, our drainage was able to swiftly remove any excess water,” Pieralisi said. “We have mostly dried out and are getting into full swing with harvest.”
Growers planted about 500,000 acres of cotton in Mississippi this year. The Sept. 15 NASS progress and condition update lists 49% of the crop in either good or excellent condition, with 39% fair and the remaining acreage reported as poor. Harvest was 2% complete.
Mike Brown, state climatologist and meteorology professor at MSU, said Francine underachieved with respect to rainfall, and wind damage was limited in scope and intensity, though there were some fallen trees and limbs that disrupted the power grid in some locations.
“Generally, we see the greatest amounts of rainfall along the coastal regions and just to the east of the center of the circulation, which is what our models were showing,” Brown said. “Francine was a bit unusual in that the greatest amounts were north and northwest of the low-pressure area.”
Rainfall forecasts for Mississippi were generally between 3 and 6 inches, with the exception of western Mississippi, which was closer to 2 inches. Brown said most totals wound up on the low end of that range, with Biloxi registering 3.5 inches, Jackson getting 3 inches and Greenwood receiving 2.75 inches. An outlier was Southaven, which received 4.25 inches.
“We knew it would rapidly decrease in intensity due to some fairly strong shear along the Coast, so the downgrade in intensity was anticipated and why there was not more wind-related damage,” he said. “Overall, while weaker, the low-pressure area remained intact, which we thought would provide us much more rainfall than what occurred. The forward speed of the low was also quicker than the models thought.”
Though the crop was largely unaffected, Pieralisi said problems commonly associated with rainfall leading up to harvest will still appear.
“We can expect hard locked bolls, some boll rot, and sprouting seeds in the bur,” he said. “Seeds will sprout in open bolls when the lint stays damp for several days in a row. The severity depends on how long it takes to get a hot sunny couple of days. If the sprout dries up while it’s still very small, it’s not much of an issue.”
Source: http://extension.msstate.edu/