Farmers planted more cotton and rice in 2026 than originally expected.
Those acreage adjustments did push production projections higher on the month, but a lower yield guess for cotton and year-over-year decline in rice acres have production for both crops below a year ago.
Upland cotton is now seen at 13.209 million bales, 283,000 less than 2025, with yield expected dip 54 pounds on the year to 788 pounds per acre.
This year, upland planted area is 10.321 million acres with harvested area at 8.044 million, compared to planted area of 9.141 million and harvested area of 7.689 million last year.
Rice production is pegged at 158.391 million hundredweight, 48.316 million under last year, with the average yield currently pegged at 100 pounds per acreage above a year ago at 7,644 pounds.
For 2026, planted area is currently set at 2.112 million acres with harvested area of 2.072 million, compared to 2.812 million and 274 million, respectively, in 2025.
New crop cotton ending stocks were down on the month, and rice was up.
Those acreage adjustments from June include updated data from the USDA’s Farm Service and Risk Management agencies, and also incorporate satellite, direct observation, and farmer survey data.
Further changes to these numbers will occur in the coming months.
The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out September 11th.
Comparisons for Brownfield states:
Arkansas: Cotton: 1.555 million bales, compared to 1.329 million in 2025; Average Yield: RECORD 1,341 pounds per acre, compared to 1,239 a year ago; Planted Area: 560,000 acres, compared to 520,000 last year; Harvested Area: 555,000 acres, compared to 515,000 the year before
Rice: 66.007 million hundredweight, compared to 93.449 million in 2025; Average Yield: 7,450 pounds per acre, compared to 7,480 a year ago; Planted Area: 901,000 acres, compared to 1.284 million last year; Harvested Area: 886,000 acres, compared to 1.25 million the year before
Kansas: Cotton: 160,000 bales, compared to 155,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 960 pounds per acre, compared to 966 a year ago; Planted Area: 90,000 acres, compared to 102,000 last year; Harvested Area: 310,000 acres, compared to 340,000 the year before
Missouri: Cotton: 880,000 bales, compared to 768,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 1,363 pounds per acre, compared to 1,084 a year ago; Planted Area: 320,000 acres, compared to 355,000 last year; Harvested Area: 310,000 acres, compared to 340,000 the year before
Rice: 8.96 million hundredweight, compared to 15.867 million in 2025; Average Yield: 8,000 pounds per acre, compared to 7,630 a year ago; Planted Area: 118,000 acres, compared to 213,000 last year; Harvested Area: 112,000 acres, compared to 208,000 the year before
Tennessee: Cotton: 410,000 bales, compared to 352,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 1,036 pounds per acre, compared to 889 a year ago; Planted Area: 195,000 acres, compared to 205,000 last year; Harvested Area: 190,000 acres, unchanged from the year before