Global cotton benchmark prices have decreased over the past month, as per the Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook December 2021 by Cotton Incorporated. The March NY/ICE futures dropped from levels near 120 cents/lb to those near 106 cents/lb over the past month. Indian spot prices (Shankar-6 quality) decreased from 115 to 100 cents/lb and from ₹66,700 to ₹65,000 per candy of 356 kg each.
The A Index decreased from 125 to 119 cents/lb.
The December 2022 NY/ICE contract, which reflects price expectations after the next harvest (2022-23 crop year), was trading as high as 92 cents/lb in early November but then fell as low as 86 cents/lb by the start of December. Current values are a little higher, trading near 90 cents/lb.
The China Cotton Index (CC 3128B) was comparatively stable. In international terms, it held between 159 and 162 cents/lb. In domestic terms, values fell from 22,500 to 22,000 RMB/ton.
Pakistani spot prices climbed as high as 121 cents/lb around the middle of November. Since then, prices have fallen to levels near 114 cents/lb. In domestic terms, prices climbed as high as 17,500 and then decreased to 16,700 PKR/maund (37.32 kg).
The latest USDA report featured a small decrease in global production (-224,000 bales to 121.6 million) and a small increase to global mill-use (+170,000 bales to 124.3 million). Along with some slight changes for other countries, historical revisions to figures for Indian stocks pulled the estimate for global beginning stocks in 2021-22 -706,000 bales lower (to 88.6 million bales).
The net effect of changes to beginning stocks, production, and consumption was a 1.2 million bale decrease to the forecast for 2021-22 ending stocks (to 85.7 million bales). Despite the reduction, the projection for world stocks at the conclusion of the current crop year calls for the seventh-highest volume on record, as per the report by Cotton Incorporated.
The projection for stocks for the world-less-China suggests the second-highest on record. In terms of stocks-to-use ratios, the global forecast ranks in the top nine since 2000-01, while the forecast for the world-less-China ranks in the top five.
At the country-level, the largest revisions were for Pakistan (-1.0 million to 5.7 million bales), Benin (+200,000 bales to 1.5 million), Turkey (+200,000 bales to 3.8 million), and Uzbekistan (+200,000 bales to 3.4 million).
For mill-use, the largest country-level changes included those for Pakistan (-300,000 bales to 11.1 million), Turkey (+100,000 bales to 8.5 million), Uzbekistan (+100,000 bales to 3.3 million), and Vietnam (+200,000 bales to 7.5 million).
The global trade estimate increased 320,000 bales to 46.9 million. For imports, the largest changes were for China (-250,000 bales to 10.3 million), Pakistan (+300,000 bales to 5.3 million), Vietnam (+200,000 bales to 7.5 million). For exports, the only change over 100,000 bales was for Brazil (+200,000 bales to 8.3 million).
Source: https://www.fibre2fashion.com/